11:55:00
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97S: risque d'intensification modéré pour les prochaines 24h

Selon le JTWC, le risque d'intensification pour la zone perturbée 97S INVEST est  maintenant modéré pour les prochaines 24h. Le cisaillement s'est un peu affaibli, il est désormais faible à modéré. On verra cet après midi ce que dira le CMRS à ce propos...

A 10h le système se situait à 905.8 km de nos cotes par le point 13.0S / 55.5E. Les vents soufflaient en moyenne à 37 km/h. La pression estimée en son centre était de 1007 HPA.
Bulletin du JTWC:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 58.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 56.2E, APPROXIMATELY 525 NM NORTH OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXPANDING CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD, SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 172318Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVED YET FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 171830Z PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER IMAGE SHOWS A 15 TO 20 KNOT ELONGATED CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM